Champions League Semi- Finals (Manchester City vs Paris SG)


Overview 

Manchester City are unbeaten in all of their previous 5 European meetings with Paris saint Germain (3 Wins and 2 Draws). Winning their last home match against PSG in April 2016 in 2nd Leg of UEFA Champions League quarter finals. Where as PSG have only faced AC Milan (4 Times) more often without winning in Champions League than they have against Manchester City (3 Times).   



Champions League 1st Leg Results 

Manchester City faced Paris SG in 1st leg of Champions league in Parc de Princes ( Home of Paris Saint-Germain) and they emerged victorious thanks to the long range goal from Kevin De Bruyne and a freekick goal from Riyad Mahrez . PSG opened scoring with Marquinhos's headed a beautiful cross from Angel Di Maria. Match ended 2-1 with Manchester City take a huge advantage into 2nd leg with 2 away goals. 


Champions League 1st leg Stats 






Champions League 2nd leg pre-match overview 

The Champions League  semi finals 2nd leg will be held in Etihad Stadium (Home of Manchester City). On 5th May 2021. As Manchester City have a Goal Lead and 2 away goal advantage. PSG have to beat Manchester City with more than 2 Goals to go to the finals. 



Players Injured and Suspended


Manchester City - None 

Paris SG - 
  1. Juan Bernat - Cruciate Ligament Rupture
  2. Kylian Mbappe - Calf Injury 
  3. Idrissa Gueye - Red Card 

Predicted Lineups - 

Manchester City - Ederson, Kyle Walker, Reuben Dias, Aymeric Laporte, Joao Cancelo, Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Ilkay Gundogan, Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden, Kevin De Bruyne. 

Paris Saint- Germain - Keylor Navas, Alessandro Florenzi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Mitchel Bakker, Danilo Pereira, Leandro Paredes, Angel Di Maria, Marco Verratti, Neymar Jr., Moise Kean. 


Win Predictions

The average expected goals and assists of Paris SG is at 2.5 per match and average goals conceded per match is 0.7. Whereas Manchester City scores an average of 2.8 per match with a whooping low of 0.2 goals conceded per Match. For me Manchester City have 69% chances to win this tie  and PSG have 12% there are 19% chances that the match will end in a draw. 


   


Going To Finals 

Manchester City have a FPI (Football Power Index) rating of 93.4 and Paris SG's FPI rating is at 82.6. So Manchester City have 95% chances to make it through the finals and PSG have 5% chances to go through the finals.





References - One Football, Football Made Simple, FiveThirtyEight 

Statistical Theories Used -  Harmonic Mean, Ranked Possibility score, Monte Carlo Method and  Poisson Process. 


Keep Ballin 😎
Joel Binu Mathew . 


 

    





Comments

  1. INDIAN RIYAL3 May 2021 at 22:13

    It’s maybe a 1-1 draw. Anyway city have the advantage of away goal. City’s first champions league final is confirmed.💙

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Joel Mathew4 May 2021 at 06:11

      Home games plus mbappe's injury the Man city have a huge advantage to defeated PSG.

      Delete
  2. dexter4 May 2021 at 03:29

    Cmon Paris!! It’s Di Maria time!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Joel Mathew4 May 2021 at 06:12

      Neymar, Di Maria what an attack .. But Pep won't bottle it ..

      Delete

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