Champions League Semi Finals (Chelsea VS Real Madrid)

 

Overview 

Chelsea will face Real Madrid for 6th time in European competitions. They are unbeaten is previous 5 fixtures  with 2 wins and 3 draws. Real Madrid are winless in their last 4 away games against English sides with 2 draws and 2 losses.



Champions League Semi- Finals 1st leg Results 

Chelsea faced Real Madrid in Champions League 1st leg in Alfredo di Stefano stadium (Home of Real Madrid) on 28th April 2021. Christian Pulisic fires Chelsea ahead with a sublime finish , Real Madrid's Karim Benzema converts on a volley to equalize Chelsea's lead . Match ended 1-1 draw with Chelsea having an away goal advantage. 



Champions League 1st Leg Stats 


 







Champions League 2nd leg

The Champions League semi finals will be held in Stamford Bridge (Chelsea's Home ground). On 6th May 2021 . As Chelsea have an away goal advantage, if the match ends in goalless draw they will be through to the finals. but if Real Madrid wins or draws for more than 2 goals they will go through to the finals. 


Injuries 

Chelsea - 

  1.    Mateo Kovacic - Thigh 
Real Madrid - 
  1. Lucas Vazquez - Ruptured Cruciate Ligament 
  2. Daniel Carvajal - Muscle Injury 
  3. Raphael Varane - Leg Injury 

Predicted Lineups 

Chelsea - Edouard Mendy, Antonio Rudiger, Thiago Silva, Kurt Zouma, Jorginho, N'Golo Kante, Benjamin Chilwell, Cesar Azpilicueta, Mason Mount, Christian Pulisic and Kai Havertz. 

Real Madrid - Thibaut Courtois, Nacho Fernandez, Eder Militao, Sergio Ramos, Ferland Mendy, Casemiro, Toni Kroos, Luka Modric, Marco Asensio, Vinicius Junior and Karim Benzema.   


Win Predictions

As the average expected goals and assists of Real Madrid is 2.5 per match and average goal conceded per match is at 0.4. On the other hand Chelsea have an average of expected goals and assists at 2.3 per match and expected goals conceded at 0.2. For me Chelsea have 46%  chance of winning  the tie and Real Madrid have 26% there are 27% chances that the game will finish in  a draw. 










Going to the Finals 

Chelsea have and FPI rating of 88.4 and Real Madrid's FPI rating is at 87.5. It will Be a Nail Biting contest. Chelsea have more chances to make it to the finals (69%) and Real Madrid have 32% chances to go through to the Finals.  







References -  One Football, FiveThiryEight, Football Made Simple. 

Statistical Theories used-  Harmonic Mean, Ranked Possibility Score, Monte Carlo Method, Poisson process .



Keep Ballin 😎
Joel Binu Mathew

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